CBO chief warns it’s ‘probably not plausible’ that a strong economy alone can steady U.S. debt as 5%-6% growth is needed—more than Bessent’s 3% view

Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel has warned that faster economic growth by itself is unlikely to keep U.S. debt under control.

His assessment challenges the idea that a stronger economy could provide a sufficient solution to the country’s debt pressures. Even if gross domestic product were to expand at more than twice its current pace, Swagel said that outcome would probably not be enough to steady the debt trajectory.

Why the growth debate matters

The comments put the limits of growth-led debt management in focus. A stronger economy can improve the pace of expansion, but Swagel’s warning indicates that growth alone should not be viewed as a dependable way to keep U.S. debt in check.

The growth rate under discussion is also notably higher than the 3% view attributed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The source describes a requirement of roughly 5% to 6% growth for the approach to have a chance of addressing the debt burden, making the target substantially more demanding.

Implications for the U.S. outlook

Swagel’s remarks add caution to expectations that economic expansion could resolve the debt challenge without other measures. They also underscore the gap between a moderate growth outlook and the much faster pace that would be needed for growth alone to play that role.

For now, the CBO director’s message is that stronger GDP performance, even at an unusually rapid rate, should not be treated as a standalone answer to U.S. debt concerns.