RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it is too early to determine what would happen to the economy if the India-US free trade agreement does not materialise. He said the consequences would depend on the extent of tariffs applied.
Tariff levels remain the key variable
Malhotra did not offer a definitive assessment of the economic impact. Instead, he pointed to tariff levels as the factor that would shape the outcome. His comments leave the potential effects of the trade agreement’s absence open until there is greater clarity on how tariffs would be applied.
Why the assessment remains uncertain
The remarks indicate that the broader economic implications cannot be judged solely on whether the agreement is concluded. The scale of any tariffs would also need to be known before a clearer evaluation can be made.
For now, the RBI Governor’s position is that any firm conclusion would be premature. The impact of the India-US trade situation therefore remains tied to the eventual tariff structure.